Rafał Kucharski

List of main publications and preprints

1. EJOR

   Balancing profit and traveller acceptance in ride-pooling personalised fares

   Bujak, Michał, and Kucharski, Rafał

   European Journal of Operational Research 2025

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   In a ride-pooling system, travellers experience discomfort associated with a detour and a longer travel time, which is compensated with a sharing discount. Most studies assume homogeneous travellers that receive either a flat discount or, in rare cases, a proportional to the inconvenience. This simplified approach offers inaccurate results and leads to an underperforming service when tested against diverse and natural human behaviour. We improve the standard approach on two bases. First, we propose a stochastic setting, where we leverage the population distribution of behavioural traits to determine the acceptance probability. Second, we personalise fares. Each traveller receives a sharing discount based on their contribution to the system such that the operator maximises his expected profitability. In the study, we rigorously prove that the discount optimisation problem can be decomposed. We optimise discounts at a ride level to claim the system optimum. An operator, when proposing fares, encounters two counteracting effects. Low fares increase realisation probability while high fares improve profit from a realised ride. In the personalised discount optimisation, we seek the golden mean. Travellers, who are well-aligned and experience minimal discomfort of sharing, are offered higher fares than those who require more incentive to join the service. Unlike in previous methods, our approach naturally balances the travellers satisfaction and the profit maximisation. With an experiment set in NYC, we show that this leads to significant improvements over the flat discount baseline: the mileage is reduced by 4.5% and the operator generates more profit per mile (over 20% improvement)

2. TR:C

   MoMaS: Two-sided Mobility Market Simulation Framework for Modeling Platform Growth Trajectories

   Ghasemi, Farnoud, and Kucharski, Rafal

   Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 2025

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   Mobility platforms such as Uber and DiDi have been introduced in cities worldwide, each demonstrating varying degrees of success, employing diverse strategies, and exerting distinct impacts on urban mobility. We have observed various growth trajectories in two-sided mobility markets and understood the underlying mechanisms. However, to date, a realistic microscopic model of these markets including phenomena such as network effects has been missing. State-of-the-art methods well estimate the macroscopic equilibrium conditions in the market, but struggle to reproduce the individual human behavior behind and complex growth patterns sensitive to platform strategy and policies. To bridge this gap, we introduce the MoMaS (two-sided Mobility Market Simulation) framework to represent growth mechanism in two-sided mobility markets based on the realistic behavior adjustment of drivers and travelers reactive to platform strategy. In the proposed framework, traveler and driver agents learn the platform utility from multiple channels: their own experience, peers’ word-of-mouth, and the platform’s marketing, all-together constituting the agent’s perceived utility of the platform. Each of these channels is modeled and updated by our S-shaped learning model day-to-day which stabilizes, and at the same time, remains sensitive to the system changes. The platform can simulate any strategy on five levers: trip fare, commission rate, discount rate, incentive rate, and marketing. While detailed empirical data and actual strategies for platform growth remain largely unknown, MoMaS allows to reproduce series of plausible growth trajectories that were previously unattainable. The framework facilitates the modeling of individual-level behaviors such as reluctance, neutrality, and loyalty, alongside aggregate-level dynamics like critical mass, bandwagon effects, and both positive and negative cross-side network effects. We illustrate the capabilities of MoMaS through an extensive set of real-world experiments. Our results demonstrate that once the platform acquires critical mass, it triggers a significant positive cross-side network effect, accelerating growth. However, this can be reversed if a negative cross-side network effect is triggered, leading to the collapse of the platform. MoMaS is applicable for real-sized problems and available on public repository along with reproducible experiments.

3. arXiv

   URB - Urban Routing Benchmark for RL-equipped Connected Autonomous Vehicles

   Akman, Ahmet Onur, Psarou, Anastasia, Hoffmann, Michał, Gorczyca, Łukasz, Kowalski, Łukasz, Gora, Paweł, Jamróz, Grzegorz, and Kucharski, Rafał

   arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.17734 2025

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   Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) promise to reduce congestion in future urban networks, potentially by optimizing their routing decisions. Unlike for human drivers, these decisions can be made with collective, data-driven policies, developed by machine learning algorithms. Reinforcement learning (RL) can facilitate the development of such collective routing strategies, yet standardized and realistic benchmarks are missing. To that end, we present \our: Urban Routing Benchmark for RL-equipped Connected Autonomous Vehicles. \our is a comprehensive benchmarking environment that unifies evaluation across 29 real-world traffic networks paired with realistic demand patterns. \our comes with a catalog of predefined tasks, four state-of-the-art multi-agent RL (MARL) algorithm implementations, three baseline methods, domain-specific performance metrics, and a modular configuration scheme. Our results suggest that, despite the lengthy and costly training, state-of-the-art MARL algorithms rarely outperformed humans. Experimental results reported in this paper initiate the first leaderboard for MARL in large-scale urban routing optimization and reveal that current approaches struggle to scale, emphasizing the urgent need for advancements in this domain.

4. SoftwareX

   RouteRL: Multi-agent reinforcement learning framework for urban route choice with autonomous vehicles

   Akman, Ahmet Onur, Psarou, Anastasia, Gorczyca, Łukasz, Varga, Zoltán György, Jamróz, Grzegorz, and Kucharski, Rafał

   SoftwareX 2025

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   RouteRL is a novel framework that integrates multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) with a microscopic traffic simulation for the development of efficient collective route choice strategies for autonomous vehicles (AVs). The proposed framework models the daily urban route choices of driver agents of two types: human drivers, emulated using behavioral route choice models, and AVs, modeled as MARL agents optimizing their policies for a predefined objective. RouteRL aims to advance research in MARL, transport modeling, and human–AI interaction for transportation applications. This study presents a technical report on RouteRL, outlines its potential research contributions, and showcases its impact via illustrative examples. Initial findings show that human travel times could increase following the introduction of AVs in urban environments, highlighting the importance of future studies to support efficient urban mobility.

5. Sci. Rep.

   Social implications of coexistence of CAVs and human drivers in the context of route choice

   Jamróz, Grzegorz, Akman, Ahmet Onur, Psarou, Anastasia, Varga, Zoltán György, and Kucharski, Rafał

   Scientific Reports 2025

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   Suppose in a stable urban traffic system populated only by human driven vehicles (HDVs), a given proportion (e.g. 10 %) is replaced by a fleet of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs), which share information and pursue a collective goal. Suppose these vehicles are centrally coordinated and differ from HDVs only by their collective capacities allowing them to make more efficient routing decisions before the travel on a given day begins. Suppose there is a choice between two routes and every day each driver makes a decision which route to take. Human drivers maximize their utility. CAVs might optimize different goals, such as the total travel time of the fleet. We show that in this plausible futuristic setting, the strategy CAVs are allowed to adopt may result in human drivers either benefitting or being systematically disadvantaged and urban networks becoming more or less optimal. Consequently, some regulatory measures might become indispensable.

6. SNAM

   Optimising network efficiency in an epidemic scenario

   Proszewska, Magdalena, Bujak, Michal, Kucharski, Rafal, Tabor, Jacek, and Smieja, Marek

   Social Network Analysis and Mining 2025

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   Efficiency of a system network often relies on high connectivity. However, strongly connected networks are vulnerable in a case of a spreading virus. In our study, we propose a clustering method which balances the two opposing factors: maintains a high system efficiency yet minimises the spreading potential. Our Deep Epidemic Efficiency Network (DEEN) model leverages Graph Convolutional Neural Networks and a novel loss function. In an unsupervised setting, we seek a partition that maximises the system utility while restraining the transmission rate to a desired level. We show that proposed method successfully solves three real-life problems: ride-pooling service in New York City, economic exchange between regions in Poland, and information sharing via peer-to-peer network. In particular, by dividing 150 New York taxi travellers into four groups our method increases epidemic threshold more than twofold at the cost of reducing utility only by 13%. The model can be instrumental in future pandemic outbreaks when we need to balance between efficiency and potential spread of a virus.

7. J. public transp.

   SimFLEX: A methodology for comparative analysis of urban areas for implementing new on-demand feeder bus services

   Vasiutina, Hanna, Shulika, Olha, Bujak, Michał, Ghasemi, Farnoud, and Kucharski, Rafał

   Journal of Public Transportation 2025

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   On-demand feeder bus services present an innovative solution to urban mobility challenges, yet their success depends on a thorough assessment and strategic planning. Despite their potential, a systematic methodology for selecting suitable service areas remains underdeveloped. Simulation Framework for Feeder Location Evaluation (SimFLEX) utilizes spatial, demographic, and transportation-specific characteristics to conduct simulations at a microscopic level and compute various key performance indicators (KPIs), including service attractiveness, waiting time reduction, and added value. To address the stochastic nature of demand and uncertainty embedded in mode choice, we leverage Monte Carlo analysis, capturing variability across simulated scenarios. Our framework integrates several methods for a complete assessment of feeder potential: microscopic demand generation, creation of shared rides, public transport modeling, and iterative traveler learning and stabilization approach. Once the system stabilizes, KPIs are computed for comparative and sensitivity analyzes. As a showcase for our method, we apply SimFLEX to compare two remote districts in Krakow, Poland – Bronowice and Skotniki – designated as candidates for service deployment. Despite similar urban characteristics, our analysis revealed notable differences in KPIs between the analyzed areas: Skotniki exhibited higher service attractiveness (around 30 %) and added value (up to 7 %), whereas Bronowice showed greater potential for reducing waiting times (around 77 %). To assess the robustness of SimFLEX outputs under uncertain behavioral assumptions, we conducted a sensitivity analysis across a range of alternative-specific constants. The results consistently confirmed Skotniki as the more suitable candidate for feeder service implementation, demonstrating that this conclusion holds despite variations in a key preference parameter. The SimFLEX framework can be instrumental for decision makers to estimate feeder potential for a designated area. The model’s flexibility and modular characteristics make it a versatile tool for policymakers and urban planners to enhance urban mobility.

8. T&T

   Can we start sharing our rides again? The post-pandemic ride-pooling market

   Shulika, Olha, and Kucharski, Rafal

   Transport and Telecommunication 2025

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   Before the pandemic, ride-pooling was a promising mode of urban mobility, marked by increasing service providers and increasing traveller adoption, critical to its efficiency and sustainability. However, the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruption, with services suspended, business models altered, and reduced traveller confidence. In the post-pandemic era, understanding the future of ride-pooling is crucial. This article reviews the market through literature, pooling availability, and traveller behaviour studies. We find that the core elements of the ride-pooling model remain intact, with potential to appeal to travellers, drivers, platforms, and policymakers. Changes in travel behaviour due to the pandemic appear temporary, with a high willingness to share rides and reduce costs. However, whether ride-pooling can regain its growth remains uncertain. Despite unprecedented start-up activity, the financial prospects are unclear, posing challenges to its resurgence as a sustainable mobility solution.

9. arXiv

   Impact of collective behaviors of autonomous vehicles on urban traffic dynamics: A multi-agent reinforcement learning approach

   Akman, Ahmet Onur, Psarou, Anastasia, Varga, Zoltán György, Jamróz, Grzegorz, and Kucharski, Rafał

   arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.22216 2025

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   This study examines the potential impact of reinforcement learning (RL)-enabled autonomous vehicles (AV) on urban traffic flow in a mixed traffic environment. We focus on a simplified day-to-day route choice problem in a multi-agent setting. We consider a city network where human drivers travel through their chosen routes to reach their destinations in minimum travel time. Then, we convert one-third of the population into AVs, which are RL agents employing Deep Q-learning algorithm. We define a set of optimization targets, or as we call them behaviors, namely selfish, collaborative, competitive, social, altruistic, and malicious. We impose a selected behavior on AVs through their rewards. We run our simulations using our in-house developed RL framework PARCOUR. Our simulations reveal that AVs optimize their travel times by up to 5%, with varying impacts on human drivers’ travel times depending on the AV behavior. In all cases where AVs adopt a self-serving behavior, they achieve shorter travel times than human drivers. Our findings highlight the complexity differences in learning tasks of each target behavior. We demonstrate that the multi-agent RL setting is applicable for collective routing on traffic networks, though their impact on coexisting parties greatly varies with the behaviors adopted.

10. arXiv

    Autonomous vehicles need social awareness to find optima in multi-agent reinforcement learning routing games

    Psarou, Anastasia, Gorczyca, Łukasz, Gaweł, Dominik, and Kucharski, Rafał

    arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.11410 2025

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    Previous work has shown that when multiple selfish Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are introduced to future cities and start learning optimal routing strategies using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), they may destabilize traffic systems, as they would require a significant amount of time to converge to the optimal solution, equivalent to years of real-world commuting. We demonstrate that moving beyond the selfish component in the reward significantly relieves this issue. If each AV, apart from minimizing its own travel time, aims to reduce its impact on the system, this will be beneficial not only for the system-wide performance but also for each individual player in this routing game. By introducing an intrinsic reward signal based on the marginal cost matrix, we significantly reduce training time and achieve convergence more reliably. Marginal cost quantifies the impact of each individual action (route-choice) on the system (total travel time). Including it as one of the components of the reward can reduce the degree of non-stationarity by aligning agents’ objectives. Notably, the proposed counterfactual formulation preserves the system’s equilibria and avoids oscillations. Our experiments show that training MARL algorithms with our novel reward formulation enables the agents to converge to the optimal solution, whereas the baseline algorithms fail to do so. We show these effects in both a toy network and the real-world network of Saint-Arnoult. Our results optimistically indicate that social awareness (i.e., including marginal costs in routing decisions) improves both the system-wide and individual performance of future urban systems with AVs.

11. arXiv

    Equilibria in routing games with connected autonomous vehicles will not be strong, as exclusive clubs may form

    Kucharski, Rafał, Psarou, Anastasia, and Descormier, Natello

    arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.12862 2025

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    User Equilibrium is the standard representation of the so-called routing game in which drivers adjust their route choices to arrive at their destinations as fast as possible. Asking whether this Equilibrium is strong or not was meaningless for human drivers who did not form coalitions due to technical and behavioral constraints. This is no longer the case for connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), which will be able to communicate and collaborate to jointly form routing coalitions. We demonstrate this for the first time on a carefully designed toy-network example, where a ‘club‘ of three autonomous vehicles jointly decides to deviate from the user equilibrium and benefit (arrive faster). The formation of such a club has negative consequences for other users, who are not invited to join it and now travel longer, and for the system, making it suboptimal and disequilibrated, which triggers adaptation dynamics. This discovery has profound implications for the future of our cities. We demonstrate that, if not prevented, CAV operators may intentionally disequilibrate traffic systems from their classic Nash equilibria, benefiting their own users and imposing costs on others. These findings suggest the possible emergence of an exclusive CAV elite, from which human-driven vehicles and non-coalition members may be excluded, potentially leading to systematically longer travel times for those outside the coalition, which would be harmful for the equity of public road networks.

12. arXiv

    Wardropian Cycles make traffic assignment both optimal and fair by eliminating price-of-anarchy with Cyclical User Equilibrium for compliant connected autonomous vehicles

    Hoffmann, Michał, Bujak, Michał, Jamróz, Grzegorz, and Kucharski, Rafał

    arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.19675 2025

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    Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) open the possibility for centralised routing with full compliance, making System Optimal traffic assignment attainable. However, as System Optimum makes some drivers better off than others, voluntary acceptance seems dubious. To overcome this issue, we propose a new concept of Wardropian cycles, which, in contrast to previous utopian visions, makes the assignment fair on top of being optimal, which amounts to satisfaction of both Wardrop’s principles. Such cycles, represented as sequences of permutations to the daily assignment matrices, always exist and equalise, after a limited number of days, average travel times among travellers (like in User Equilibrium) while preserving everyday optimality of path flows (like in System Optimum). We propose exact methods to compute such cycles and reduce their length and within-cycle inconvenience to the users. As identification of optimal cycles turns out to be NP-hard in many aspects, we introduce a greedy heuristic efficiently approximating the optimal solution. Finally, we introduce and discuss a new paradigm of Cyclical User Equilibrium, which ensures stability of optimal Wardropian Cycles under unilateral deviations. We complement our theoretical study with large-scale simulations. In Barcelona, 670 vehicle-hours of Price-of-Anarchy are eliminated using cycles with a median length of 11 days-though 5% of cycles exceed 90 days. However, in Berlin, just five days of applying the greedy assignment rule significantly reduces initial inequity. In Barcelona, Anaheim, and Sioux Falls, less than 7% of the initial inequity remains after 10 days, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach in improving traffic performance with more ubiquitous social acceptability.

13. ITSC

    Reinforcement Learning Approach for Improving Platform Performance in Two-Sided Mobility Markets

    Ghasemi, Farnoud, Tabatabaei, Seyed Hassan, Ghanadbashi, Saeedeh, Kucharski, Rafał, and Golpayegani, Fatemeh

    In 2024 IEEE 27th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC) 2024

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    Two-sided mobility markets, with platforms like Uber and Lyft, are complex systems by nature due to intricate, non-linear interactions between the platform and the involved parties including travelers and drivers. These interactions give rise to phenomena underlying market evolution, mainly cross-side network effects. Currently, such platforms rely on rule-based (RB) strategies with a constant commission rate to grow and achieve sustainability in terms of market share and profitability. However, the constant commission rate significantly constrains the platform’s ability to leverage network effects, leading to inefficient growth. In this study, a Reinforcement Learning-based (RLB) strategy is proposed to improve the platform performance through strategic levers. We employ a Deep Q-Network (DQN) within an agent-based framework, enabling the platform to adjust the commission rate on a day-to-day basis while learning the complex, non-linear interactions in the market. The results show that the RL-based strategies successfully generate and control the essential cross-side network effects in the market enhancing the platform performance via dynamic commission rate. Our results indicate 12% improvement in the platform revenue with the RL-based strategy in comparison to the rule-based strategy without significantly compromising the platform market share which can essentially impact the platform’s viability in the long term.

14. arXiv

    Autonomous Vehicles Using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Routing Decisions Can Harm Urban Traffic

    Psarou, Anastasia, Akman, Ahmet Onur, Gorczyca, Łukasz, Hoffmann, Michał, Varga, Zoltán György, Jamróz, Grzegorz, and Kucharski, Rafał

    arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.13188 2025

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    Autonomous vehicles (AVs) using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) for simultaneous route optimization may destabilize traffic environments, with human drivers possibly experiencing longer travel times. We study this interaction by simulating human drivers and AVs. Our experiments with standard MARL algorithms reveal that, even in trivial cases, policies often fail to converge to an optimal solution or require long training periods. The problem is amplified by the fact that we cannot rely entirely on simulated training, as there are no accurate models of human routing behavior. At the same time, real-world training in cities risks destabilizing urban traffic systems, increasing externalities, such as CO2 emissions, and introducing non-stationarity as human drivers adapt unpredictably to AV behaviors. Centralization can improve convergence in some cases, however, it raises privacy concerns for the travelers’ destination data. In this position paper, we argue that future research must prioritize realistic benchmarks, cautious deployment strategies, and tools for monitoring and regulating AV routing behaviors to ensure sustainable and equitable urban mobility systems.

15. TR:A

    The implications of drivers’ ride acceptance decisions on the operations of ride-sourcing platforms

    Ashkrof, Peyman, Ghasemi, Farnoud, Kucharski, Rafał, Almeida Correia, Gonçalo Homem, Cats, Oded, and Arem, Bart

    Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 2025

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    As a two-sided digital platform, ride-sourcing has disruptively penetrated the mobility market. Ride-sourcing companies provide door-to-door transport services by connecting passengers with independent service suppliers labelled as “driver-partners”. Once a passenger submits a ride request, the platform attempts to match the request with a nearby available driver. Drivers have the freedom to accept or decline ride requests. The consequences of this decision, which is made at the operation level, have remained largely unknown in the literature. Using agent-based simulation modelling on the realistic case study of the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, we study the impacts of drivers’ ride acceptance behaviour, estimated from unique empirical data, on the ride-sourcing system where the platform applies regular and surge pricing strategies, and riders may revoke their requests and reject the received offers. Furthermore, we delve into the implications of various supply–demand intensities, a centralised fleet (i.e., mandatory acceptance on each ride request) versus a decentralised fleet (i.e., ride acceptance decision by each driver), ride acceptance rates, and surge pricing settings. We find that the ride acceptance decision of ride-sourcing drivers has far-reaching consequences for system performance in terms of passengers’ waiting time, driver’s revenue, operating costs, and profit, all of which are highly dependent on the ratio between demand and supply. As the system undergoes a transition from undersupplied (i.e., real-time demand locally exceeds available drivers) to balanced and then oversupplied state (i.e., more available drivers than real-time demand), ride acceptance decisions result in higher income inequality. A high acceptance rate among drivers may lead to more rides, but it does not necessarily increase their profit. Surge pricing is found to be asymmetrically in favour of all the parties despite adverse effects on the demand side due to higher trip fare. This study offers insights into both the aggregated and disaggregated levels of ride-sourcing system operations and outlines a series of transport policy and practice implications in cities that offer such ride-sourcing systems.

16. TB&S

    Has the COVID-19 pandemic affected travellers’ willingness to wait with real-time crowding information?

    Drabicki, Arkadiusz, Cats, Oded, and Kucharski, Rafał

    Travel Behaviour and Society 2025

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    Travel preferences in public transport (PT) have been substantially affected by the COVID-19 crisis, with rising emphasis on on-board safety and comfort aspects. Hence, real-time crowding information (RTCI) might have become even more instrumental in supporting travel decisions in congested urban PT systems. This study investigates the willingness to wait (WTW) to reduce (or avoid) overcrowding with RTCI in urban PT (bus and tram) journeys, analysing pre- vs. post-COVID travel behaviour attitudes. Stated-preference data and (subsequently estimated) choice models indicate that, while the pre-COVID WTW was primarily driven by mere possibility to avoid an overcrowded first departure, the post-COVID propensity to wait is strongly associated with expectations of seat availability in second departure as well. The ex-post WTW with RTCI seems to have become less-dependent on individual characteristics and more prominent for time-critical (obligatory) trips as well. Our findings underpin the rising relevance of passenger overcrowding in urban PT journeys. Moreover, they help better understand the potential of RTCI in post-pandemic recovery of PT ridership.

17. npj

    Hyper pooling private trips into high occupancy transit like attractive shared rides

    Kucharski, Rafał, and Cats, Oded

    npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport 2024

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    The size of the solution space associated with the trip-matching problem has made the search for high-order ride-pooling prohibitive. We introduce hyper-pooled rides along with a method to identify them within urban demand patterns. Travellers of hyper-pooled rides walk to common pick-up points, travel with a shared vehicle along a sequence of stops and are dropped off at stops from which they walk to their destinations. While closely resembling classical mass transit, hyper-pooled rides are purely demand-driven, with itineraries (stop locations, sequences, timings) optimised for all co-travellers. For 2000 trips in Amsterdam the algorithm generated 40 hyper-pooled rides transporting 225 travellers. They would require 52.5 vehicle hours to travel solo, whereas in the hyper-pooled multi-stop rides, it is reduced sixfold to 9 vehicle hours only. This efficiency gain is made possible by achieving an average occupancy of 5.8 (and a maximum of 14) while remaining attractive for all co-travellers.

18. Transportation

    Ride-pooling service assessment with heterogeneous travellers in non-deterministic setting

    Bujak, Michal, and Kucharski, Rafal

    Transportation 2024

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    Ride-pooling remains a promising emerging mode with a potential to contribute towards urban sustainability and emission reductions. Recent studies revealed complexity and diversity among travellers’ ride-pooling attitudes. So far, ride-poling analyses assumed homogeneity of ride-pooling travellers. This, as we demonstrate, leads to a false assessment of ride-pooling system performance. We experiment with an actual NYC demand from 2016 and classify travellers into four groups of various ride-pooling behaviours (value of time and penalty for sharing), as reported in the recent SP study from Netherlands. We replicate their behavioural characteristics, according to the population distribution, to obtain meaningful performance estimations. Results vary significantly from the homogeneous benchmark: mileage savings were lower, while the utility gains for travellers were greater. Observing performance of heterogeneous travellers, we find that those with a low value of time are most beneficial travellers in the pooling system, while those with an average penalty for sharing benefit the most. Notably, despite the highly variable travellers’ behaviour, the confidence intervals for the key performance indicators are reasonably narrow and system-wide performance remains predictable. Our results show that the incorrect assumption of homogeneous traits leads to a high dissatisfaction of 18.5% and a cancellation rate of 36%. Such findings shed a new light on the expected performance of large scale ride-pooling systems.

19. JoTG

    Spatiotemporal variability of ride-pooling potential – Half a year New York City experiment

    Shulika, Olha, Bujak, Michal, Ghasemi, Farnoud, and Kucharski, Rafal

    Journal of Transport Geography 2024

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    Ride-pooling systems, despite being an appealing urban mobility mode, still struggle to gain momentum. While we know the significance of critical mass in reaching system sustainability, less is known about the spatiotemporal patterns of system performance. Here, we use 1.5 million NYC taxi trips (sampled over a six-month period) and experiment to understand how well they could be served with pooled services. We use an offline utility-driven ride-pooling algorithm and observe the pooling potential with six performance indicators: mileage reductions, travellers’ utility gains, share of pooled rides, occupancy, detours, and potential fleet reduction. We report distributions and temporal profiles of about 35 thousand experiments covering weekdays, weekends, evenings, mornings, and nights. We report complex spatial patterns, with gains concentrated in the core of the network and costs concentrated on the peripheries. The greatest potential shifts from the North in the morning to the Central and South in the afternoon. Offering pooled rides at the fare 32% lower than private ride-hailing seems to be sufficient to attract pooling yet dynamically adjusting it to the demand level and spatial pattern may be efficient. The patterns observed in NYC were replicated on smaller datasets in Chicago and Washington, DC, the occupancy grows with the demand with similar trends.

20. AAMAS

    Modelling the Rise and Fall of Two-sided Markets

    Ghasemi, Farnoud, and Kucharski, Rafal

    In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2024

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    Two-sided markets disrupted our economies, reshaping markets as diverse as tourism (airbnb), mobility (Uber) and food deliveries (UberEats). New market leaders arose leveraging on platform-based business model, questioning well-established paradigms. The underlying processes behind their growth are non-trivial, inherently microscopic, and leverage on complex human interactions. Platforms need to reach critical mass of both supply and demand to trigger the so-called cross-sided network effects. To this end, platforms adopt a variety of strategies to first create the market, then expand it and finally successfully compete with others. Such a complex social system with many non-linear interactions and learning processes calls for a dedicated modelling approach. State-of-the-art methods well estimate the macroscopic equilibrium conditions, but struggle to reproduce the complex growth patterns and individual human behaviour behind. To bridge this gap, we propose the microscopic S-shaped learning model where agents build their perception on the new service with time, affected by both endogenous (service quality) and exogenous (marketing and word-of-mouth) factors cumulated from experiences. We illustrate it with the case of two-sided mobility platform (Uber), where the platform applies a series of marketing actions leading to rise and then fall on the market where 200 drivers serve 2000 travellers on the complex urban network of Amsterdam. Our model is the first to reproduce not only behaviourally sound, but also empirically observed growth trajectories, it remains sensitive to a variety of marketing strategies, allows reproducing the competition between platforms and is designed to be integrated with machine learning algorithms to identify the optimal market entry strategy.

21. arXiv

    Optimizing Ride-Pooling Revenue: Pricing Strategies and Driver-Traveller Dynamics

    Akhtar, Usman, Ghasemi, Farnoud, and Kucharski, Rafal

    arXiv preprint arXiv:2403.13384 2024

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    Ride-pooling, to gain momentum, needs to be attractive for all the parties involved. This includes also drivers, who are naturally reluctant to serve pooled rides. This can be controlled by the platform’s pricing strategy, which can stimulate drivers to serve pooled rides. Here, we propose an agent-based framework, where drivers serve rides that maximise their utility. We simulate a series of scenarios in Delft and compare three strategies. Our results show that drivers, when they maximize their profits, earn more than in both the solo-rides and only-pooled rides scenarios. This shows that serving pooled rides can be beneficial as well for drivers, yet typically not all pooled rides are attractive for drivers. The proposed framework may be further applied to propose discriminative pricing in which the full potential of ride-pooling is exploited, with benefits for the platform, travellers, and (which is novel here) to the drivers.

22. SNAM

    Network structures of urban ride-pooling problems and their properties

    Bujak, Michal, and Kucharski, Rafal

    Social Network Analysis and Mining 2023

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    Travellers, when sharing their rides in a so-called ride-pooling system, form complex networks. Despite being the algorithmic backbone to the ride-pooling problems, the shareability graphs have not been explicitly analysed yet. Here, we formalise them, study their properties and analyse relations between topological properties and expected ride-pooling performance. We introduce and formalise two representations at the two crucial stages of pooling analysis. On the NYC dataset, we run two simulations with the link generation formulas. One is when we increase discount offered to the travellers for shared rides (our control variable) and observe the phase transition. In the second, we replicate the non-deterministic behaviour of travellers in ride-pooling. This way, we generate probabilistic, weighted networks. We observed a strong correlation between the topological properties of ride-pooling networks and the system performance. Introduced class of networks paves the road to applying the network science methods to a variety of ride-pooling problems, like virus spreading, optimal pricing or stability analysis.

23. RTBM

    Should I stay or should I board? Willingness to wait with real-time crowding information in urban public transport

    Drabicki, Arkadiusz, Cats, Oded, Kucharski, Rafał, Fonzone, Achille, and Szarata, Andrzej

    Research in Transportation Business & Management 2023

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    Overcrowding is a major phenomenon affecting travel experience in urban public transport, whose negative impacts can be potentially mitigated with real-time crowding information (RTCI) on public transport vehicle departures. In this study, we investigate the willingness to wait (WTW) with instantaneous RTCI to avoid the in-vehicle (over)crowding the passenger faces, focusing specifically on urban crowding context (i.e. bus and tram systems). We conduct a stated-preference survey in Krakow (Poland), where we examine the choice probability between boarding now a more crowded vehicle vs. waiting at the stop for a less-crowded PT departure, and estimate a series of discrete choice models. Results show that 50–70% of respondents consider skipping a first departure which is excessively overcrowded and 10–30% would skip a vehicle with moderate standing crowding on-board. Acceptable waiting times typically range between 2 and 13 min, depending on crowding level and propensity to arrive on-time, but may even exceed 20 min in individual cases. These findings indicate that RTCI can induce a substantial WTW, affecting travel behaviour. We discuss its implications for mitigating service disruptions and demand management policies, including prospective support for public transport recovery in the aftermath of covid-19 crisis.

24. arXiv

    Ride Acceptance Behaviour Investigation of Ride-sourcing Drivers Through Agent-based Simulation

    Ghasemi, Farnoud, Ashkrof, Peyman, and Kucharski, Rafal

    arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.05588 2023

    Abs HTML

    Ride-sourcing platforms such as Uber and Lyft offer drivers (i.e., platform suppliers) considerable freedom of choice in multiple aspects. At the operational level, drivers can freely accept or decline trip requests that can significantly impact system performance in terms of travellers’ waiting time, drivers’ idle time and income. Despite the extensive research into the supply-side operations, the behavioural aspects, particularly drivers’ ride acceptance behaviour remains so far largely unknown. To this end, we reproduce the dynamics of a two-sided mobility platform on the road network of Delft using an agent-based simulator. Then, we implement a ride acceptance decision model enabling drivers to apply their acceptance strategies. Our findings reveal that drivers who follow the decision model, on average, earn higher income compared to drivers who randomly accept trip requests. The overall income equality between drivers with the acceptance decision is higher and travellers experience lower waiting time in this setting.

25. arXiv

    Dynamics of the Ride-Sourcing Market: A Coevolutionary Model of Competition between Two-Sided Mobility Platforms

    Ghasemi, Farnoud, Drabicki, Arkadiusz, and Kucharski, Rafał

    arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.05543 2023

    Abs HTML

    There is a fierce competition between two-sided mobility platforms (e.g., Uber and Lyft) fueled by massive subsidies, yet the underlying dynamics and interactions between the competing plat-forms are largely unknown. These platforms rely on the cross-side network effects to grow, they need to attract agents from both sides to kick-off: travellers are needed for drivers and drivers are needed for travellers. We use our coevolutionary model featured by the S-shaped learning curves to simulate the day-to-day dynamics of the ride-sourcing market at the microscopic level. We run three scenarios to illustrate the possible equilibria in the market. Our results underline how the correlation inside the ride-sourcing nest of the agents choice set significantly affects the plat-forms’ market shares. While late entry to the market decreases the chance of platform success and possibly results in "winner-takes-all", heavy subsidies can keep the new platform in competition giving rise to "market sharing" regime.

26. Tmertica:A

    The shareability potential of ride-pooling under alternative spatial demand patterns

    Soza-Parra, Jaime, Kucharski, Rafał, and Cats, Oded

    Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 2022

    Abs HTML

    In this study, we set out to explore how various spatial patterns of travel demand drive the effectiveness of ride-pooling services. To do so, we generate a broad range of synthetic, yet plausible demand patterns. We experiment with the number of attraction centres, the dispersion of destinations around these centres, and the trip length distribution. We apply a strategic ride-pooling algorithm across the generated demand patterns to identify shareability potential using a series of metrics related to ridepooling. Our findings indicate that, under a fixed demand level, vehicle-hour reduction due to ride-pooling can range between 18 and 59%. These results depend on the concentration of travel destinations around the centre and the trip length distribution. Ride-pooling becomes more efficient when trips are longer and destinations are more concentrated. A shift from a monocentric to a polycentric demand pattern is found to have a limited impact on the prospects of ride-pooling.

27. PLOS

    Simulating two-sided mobility platforms with MaaSSim

    Kucharski, Rafał, and Cats, Oded

    PLoS ONE 2022

    Abs HTML

    Two-sided mobility platforms, such as Uber and Lyft, widely emerged in the urban mobility landscape. Distributed supply of individual drivers, matched with travellers via intermediate platform yields a new class of phenomena not present in urban mobility before. Such disruptive changes to transportation systems call for a simulation framework where researchers from various and across disciplines may introduce models aimed at representing the complex dynamics of platform-driven urban mobility. In this work, we present MaaSSim, a lightweight agent-based simulator reproducing the transport system used by two kinds of agents: (i) travellers, requesting to travel from their origin to destination at a given time, and (ii) drivers supplying their travel needs by offering them rides. An intermediate agent, the platform, matches demand with supply. Agents are individual decision-makers. Specifically, travellers may decide which mode they use or reject an incoming offer; drivers may opt-out from the system or reject incoming requests. All of the above behaviours are modelled through user-defined modules, allowing to represent agents’ taste variations (heterogeneity), their previous experiences (learning) and available information (system control). MaaSSim is a flexible open-source python library capable of realistically reproducing complex interactions between agents of a two-sided mobility platform. MaaSSim is available from a public repository, along with a set of tutorials and reproducible use-case scenarios, as demonstrated with a series of illustrative examples and a comprehensive case study.

28. Transportation

    Mitigating bus bunching with real-time crowding information

    Drabicki, Arkadiusz, Kucharski, Rafał, and Cats, Oded

    Transportation 2022

    Abs HTML

    A common problem in public transport systems is bus bunching, characterized by a negative feedback loop between service headways, number of boarding passengers and dwell times. In this study, we examine whether providing real-time crowding information (RTCI) at the stop regarding the two next vehicle departures can stimulate passengers to wait for a less-crowded departure, and thus alleviate the bunching effect. To this end, we leverage on results from own stated-preference survey and develop a boarding choice model. The model accounts for the presence of RTCI and is implemented within dynamic public transport simulation framework. Application to the case-study model of a major bus corridor in Warsaw (Poland) reveals that RTCI can induce a significant probability (30–70%) of intentionally skipping an overcrowded bus and waiting for a later departure instead. This behaviour, in turn, results in significantly lower vehicle headway and load variations, without deteriorations in total waiting utility. Overall, journey experience improves by 6%, and crucially—the prevalence of denial-of-boarding and excessive on-board overcrowding is substantially reduced, by ca. 40%. Results of our study indicate that the willingness to wait induced by RTCI can be a potential demand management strategy in counteracting bunching, with benefits already attainable at limited RTCI response rates.

29. Tmetrica:B

    Evolution of labour supply in ridesourcing

    Ruijter, Arjan, Cats, Oded, Kucharski, Rafal, and Lint, Hans

    Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics 2022

    Abs HTML

    Contrary to traditional transit services, supply in ridesourcing systems emerges from individual labour decisions of gig workers. The effect of decentralisation in supply on the evolution of on-demand transit services is largely unknown. To this end, we propose a dynamic model comprising of the subsequent supply-side processes: (i) initial exposure to information about the platform, (ii) a long-term registration decision, and (iii) daily participation decisions, subject to day-to-day learning based on within-day matching outcomes. We construct a series of experiments to study the effect of supply market properties and pricing strategies. We find that labour supply in ridesourcing may be non-linear and undergo several transitions, inducing significant variations in income levels and level of service over time.Our results provide indications that the ridesourcing market may benefit from a cap in supply and regulation of the commission fee.

30. PLOS

    Beyond the dichotomy: How ride-hailing competes with and complements public transport

    Cats, Oded, Kucharski, Rafal, Danda, Santosh Rao, and Yap, Menno

    Plos one 2022

    Abs HTML

    Since ride-hailing has become an important travel alternative in many cities worldwide, a fervent debate is underway on whether it competes with or complements public transport services. We use Uber trip data in six cities in the United States and Europe to identify the most attractive public transport alternative for each ride. We then address the following questions: (i) How does ride-hailing travel time and cost compare to the fastest public transport alternative? (ii) What proportion of ride-hailing trips do not have a viable public transport alternative? (iii) How does ride-hailing change overall service accessibility? (iv) What is the relation between demand share and relative competition between the two alternatives? Our findings suggest that the dichotomy—competing with or complementing—is false. Though the vast majority of ride-hailing trips have a viable public transport alternative, between 20% and 40% of them have no viable public transport alternative. The increased service accessibility attributed to the inclusion of ride-hailing is greater in our US cities than in their European counterparts. Demand split is directly related to the relative competitiveness of travel times i.e. when public transport travel times are competitive ride-hailing demand share is low and vice-versa.

31. CIiT

    Using city-bike stopovers to reveal spatial patterns of urban attractiveness

    Banet, Krystian, Naumov, Vitalii, and Kucharski, Rafał

    Current Issues in Tourism 2022

    Abs HTML

    We demonstrate how digital traces of city-bike trips may become useful to identify urban space attractiveness. We exploit their unique feature – stopovers: short, non-traffic-related stops made by cyclists during their trips. As we demonstrate with the case study of Kraków (Poland), when applied to a big dataset, meaningful patterns appear, with hotspots (places with long and frequent stopovers) identified at both the top tourist and leisure attractions as well as emerging new places. We propose a generic method, applicable to any spatiotemporal city-bike traces, providing results meaningful to understand the general urban space attractiveness and its dynamics. With the proposed filtering (to mitigate a selection bias) and empirical cross-validation (to rule-out false-positive classifications) results effectively reveal spatial patterns of urban attractiveness. Valuable for decision-makers and analysts to enhance understanding of urban space consumption patterns by tourists and residents.

32. Transportation

    Mitigating bus bunching with real-time crowding information

    Drabicki, Arkadiusz, Kucharski, Rafał, and Cats, Oded

    Transportation 2022

    Abs HTML

    A common problem in public transport systems is bus bunching, characterized by a negative feedback loop between service headways, number of boarding passengers and dwell times. In this study, we examine whether providing real-time crowding information (RTCI) at the stop regarding the two next vehicle departures can stimulate passengers to wait for a less-crowded departure, and thus alleviate the bunching effect. To this end, we leverage on results from own stated-preference survey and develop a boarding choice model. The model accounts for the presence of RTCI and is implemented within dynamic public transport simulation framework. Application to the case-study model of a major bus corridor in Warsaw (Poland) reveals that RTCI can induce a significant probability (30–70%) of intentionally skipping an overcrowded bus and waiting for a later departure instead. This behaviour, in turn, results in significantly lower vehicle headway and load variations, without deteriorations in total waiting utility. Overall, journey experience improves by 6%, and crucially—the prevalence of denial-of-boarding and excessive on-board overcrowding is substantially reduced, by ca. 40%. Results of our study indicate that the willingness to wait induced by RTCI can be a potential demand management strategy in counteracting bunching, with benefits already attainable at limited RTCI response rates.

33. Tmetrica:B

    Evolution of labour supply in ridesourcing

    Ruijter, Arjan, Cats, Oded, Kucharski, Rafal, and Lint, Hans

    Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics 2022

    Abs HTML

    Contrary to traditional transit services, supply in ridesourcing systems emerges from individual labour decisions of gig workers. The effect of decentralisation in supply on the evolution of on-demand transit services is largely unknown. To this end, we propose a dynamic model comprising of the subsequent supply-side processes: (i) initial exposure to information about the platform, (ii) a long-term registration decision, and (iii) daily participation decisions, subject to day-to-day learning based on within-day matching outcomes. We construct a series of experiments to study the effect of supply market properties and pricing strategies. We find that labour supply in ridesourcing may be non-linear and undergo several transitions, inducing significant variations in income levels and level of service over time.Our results provide indications that the ridesourcing market may benefit from a cap in supply and regulation of the commission fee.

34. PLOS

    Beyond the dichotomy: How ride-hailing competes with and complements public transport

    Cats, Oded, Kucharski, Rafal, Danda, Santosh Rao, and Yap, Menno

    Plos one 2022

    Abs HTML

    Since ride-hailing has become an important travel alternative in many cities worldwide, a fervent debate is underway on whether it competes with or complements public transport services. We use Uber trip data in six cities in the United States and Europe to identify the most attractive public transport alternative for each ride. We then address the following questions: (i) How does ride-hailing travel time and cost compare to the fastest public transport alternative? (ii) What proportion of ride-hailing trips do not have a viable public transport alternative? (iii) How does ride-hailing change overall service accessibility? (iv) What is the relation between demand share and relative competition between the two alternatives? Our findings suggest that the dichotomy—competing with or complementing—is false. Though the vast majority of ride-hailing trips have a viable public transport alternative, between 20% and 40% of them have no viable public transport alternative. The increased service accessibility attributed to the inclusion of ride-hailing is greater in our US cities than in their European counterparts. Demand split is directly related to the relative competitiveness of travel times i.e. when public transport travel times are competitive ride-hailing demand share is low and vice-versa.

35. arXiv

    Exploring Computational Complexity Of Ride-Pooling Problems

    Akhtar, Usman, and Kucharski, Rafal

    arXiv preprint arXiv:2208.02504 2022

    Abs HTML

    Ride-pooling is computationally challenging. The number of feasible rides grows with the number of travelers and the degree (capacity of the vehicle to perform a pooled ride) and quickly explodes to the sizes making the problem not solvable analytically. In practice, heuristics are applied to limit the number of searches, e.g., maximal detour and delay, or (like we use in this study) attractive rides (for which detour and delay are at least compensated with the discount). Nevertheless, the challenge to solve the ride-pooling remains strongly sensitive to the problem settings. Here, we explore it in more detail and provide an experimental underpinning to this open research problem. We trace how the size of the search space and computation time needed to solve the ride-pooling problem grows with the increasing demand and greater discounts offered for pooling. We run over 100 practical experiments in Amsterdam with 10-minute batches of trip requests up to 3600 trips per hour and trace how challenging it is to propose the solution to the pooling problem with our ExMAS algorithm. We observed strong, non-linear trends and identified the limits beyond which the problem exploded and our algorithm failed to compute. Notably, we found that the demand level (number of trip requests) is less critical than the discount. The search space grows exponentially and quickly reaches huge levels. However, beyond some level, the greater size of the ride-pooling problem does not translate into greater efficiency of pooling. Which opens the opportunity for further search space reductions.

36. EJOR

    How to split the costs and charge the travellers sharing a ride? Aligning system’s optimum with users’ equilibrium

    Fielbaum, Andres, Kucharski, Rafał, Cats, Oded, and Alonso-Mora, Javier

    European Journal of Operational Research 2021

    Abs HTML

    Emerging on-demand sharing alternatives, in which one resource is utilised simultaneously by a circumstantial group of users, entail several challenges regarding how to coordinate such users. A very relevant case refers to how to form groups in a mobility system that offers shared rides, and how to split the costs within the travellers of a group. These are non-trivial tasks, as two objectives conflict: 1) minimising the total costs of the system, and 2) finding an equilibrium where each user is content with her assignment. Aligning both objectives is challenging, as users are not aware of the externalities induced to the rest. In this paper, we propose protocols to share the costs within a ride so that optimal solutions can also constitute equilibria. To do this, we model the situation as a non-cooperative game, which can be seen as a game-version of the well-known set cover problem. We show that the traditional notions of equilibrium in game theory (Nash and Strong) are not useful here, and prove that determining whether a Strong Equilibrium exists is an NP-Complete problem, by reducing it to the k-Exact-Cover problem. Hence, we propose three alternative equilibrium notions (stronger than Nash and weaker than Strong), depending on how users can coordinate. For each of these equilibrium notions, we propose a (possibly overcharging) cost-sharing protocol that yields the optimal solutions equilibria. Simulations for Amsterdam reveal that our protocols can achieve stable solutions that are close to the optimum, and that having a central coordinator can have a large impact.

37. SciRep

    Modelling virus spreading in ride-pooling networks

    Kucharski, Rafał, Cats, Oded, and Sienkiewicz, Julian

    Scientific Reports 2021

    Abs HTML

    Urban mobility needs alternative sustainable travel modes to keep our pandemic cities in motion. Ride-pooling, where a single vehicle is shared by more than one traveller, is not only appealing for mobility platforms and their travellers, but also for promoting the sustainability of urban mobility systems. Yet, the potential of ride-pooling rides to serve as a safe and effective alternative given the personal and public health risks considerations associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is hitherto unknown. To answer this, we combine epidemiological and behavioural shareability models to examine spreading among ride-pooling travellers, with an application for Amsterdam. Findings are at first sight devastating, with only few initially infected travellers needed to spread the virus to hundreds of ride-pooling users. Without intervention, ride-pooling system may substantially contribute to virus spreading. Notwithstanding, we identify an effective control measure allowing to halt the spreading before the outbreaks (at 50 instead of 800 infections) without sacrificing the efficiency achieved by pooling. Fixed matches among co-travellers disconnect the otherwise dense contact network, encapsulating the virus in small communities and preventing the outbreaks.

38. Tmetrica:A

    If you are late, everyone is late: late passenger arrival and ride-pooling systems’ performance

    Kucharski, Rafał, Fielbaum, Andres, Alonso-Mora, Javier, and Cats, Oded

    Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 2021

    Abs HTML

    Sharing rides in on-demand systems allow passengers to reduce their fares and service providers to increase revenue, though at the cost of adding uncertainty to the system. Notably, the uncertainty of ride-pooling systems stems not only from travel times but also from unique features of sharing, such as the dependency on other passengers’ arrival time at their pick up points. In this work, we theoretically and experimentally analyse how late arrivals at pick up locations impact shared rides’ performance. We find that the total delay is equally distributed among sharing passengers. However, delay composition gradually shifts from on-board delay only for the first passenger to waiting delay at the origin for the last passenger. Sadly, trips with more passengers are more adversely impacted. Strategic behaviour analysis reveals Nash equilibria that might emerge. We analyse the system-wide effects and find that when lateness increases passengers refrain from sharing and eventually opt-out.

39. Tmetrica:A

    Modelling the effects of real-time crowding information in urban public transport systems

    Drabicki, Arkadiusz, Kucharski, Rafał, Cats, Oded, and Szarata, Andrzej

    Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 2021

    Abs HTML

    Public transport (PT) overcrowding is a notorious problem in urban transport networks. Its negative effects upon travel experience can be potentially addressed by disseminating real-time crowding information (RTCI) to passengers. However, impacts of RTCI provision in urban PT networks remain largely unknown. This study aims to contribute by developing an extended dynamic PT simulation model that enables a thorough analysis of instantaneous RTCI consequences. In the model, RTCI is generated and disseminated across the network, and then utilised in passengers’ sequential en-route choices. A case-study demonstration of the RTCI algorithm on urban PT network model of Kraków (Poland) shows that instantaneous RTCI has the potential to improve passengers’ travel experience, although it is also susceptible to inaccuracy. RTCI provision can yield total travel utility improvements of 3% in typical PM peak-hour, with reduced impacts of the worst overcrowding effects (in terms of denied-boarding and in-vehicle travel disutility in overcrowded conditions) of 30%.

40. Evolution of Labour Supply in Ridesourcing, TRBAM-21-01320

    Ruijter, Arjan, Oded, Cats, Hans, van Lint, and Rafał, Kucharski

    In TRB 100th Annual Meeting, Washington DC 2021
41. Suppressing the effects of induced traffic in urban road systems: Impact assessment with macrosimulation tools-results from the city of Krakow (Poland)

    Drabicki, A., Szarata, A., and Kucharski, R.

    2020
42. Low-dimensional model for bike-sharing demand forecasting that explicitly accounts for weather data

    Cantelmo, Guido, Kucharski, Rafał, and Antoniou, Constantinos

    In Transportation research board 99th, 2019, Washinton DC 2020
43. Willingness to wait with real-time crowding in urban public transport

    Drabicki A., \textbfKucharski R., and O., Cats

    2020, submitted to Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
44. TR:B

    Exact matching of attractive shared rides (ExMAS) for system-wide strategic evaluations

    Kucharski, Rafał, and Cats, Oded

    Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 2020

    Abs HTML

    The premise of ride-sharing is that service providers can offer a discount, so that travellers are compensated for prolonged travel times and induced discomfort, while still increasing their revenues. While recently proposed real-time solutions support online operations, algorithms to perform strategic system-wide evaluations are crucially needed. We propose an exact, replicable and demand-, rather than supply-driven algorithm for matching trips into shared rides. We leverage on delimiting our search for attractive shared rides only, which, coupled with a directed shareability multi-graph representation and efficient graph searches with predetermined node sequence, narrows the (otherwise exploding) search-space effectively enough to derive an exact solution. The proposed utility-based formulation paves the way for model integration in travel demand models, allowing for a cross-scenario sensitivity analysis, including pricing strategies and regulation policies. We apply the proposed algorithm in a series of experiments for the case of Amsterdam, where we perform a system-wide analysis of the ride-sharing performance in terms of both algorithm computations of shareability under alternative demand, network and service settings as well as behavioural parameters. In the case of Amsterdam, 3000 travellers offered a 30% discount form 1900 rides achieving an average occupancy of 1.67 and yielding a 30% vehicle-hours reduction at the cost of halving service provider revenues and a 17% increase in passenger-hours. Benchmarking against time-window constrained approaches reveals that our algorithm reduces the search-space more effectively, while yielding solutions that are substantially more attractive for travellers.

45. TRR

    Low-Dimensional Model for Bike-Sharing Demand Forecasting that Explicitly Accounts for Weather Data

    Cantelmo, Guido, Kucharski, Rafał, and Antoniou, Constantinos

    Transportation Research Record 2020

    Abs HTML

    With the increasing availability of big, transport-related datasets, detailed data-driven mobility analysis is becoming possible. Trips with their origins, destinations, and travel times are now collected in publicly available databases, allowing for detailed demand forecasting with methods exploiting big and accurate data. In this paper, we predict the demand pattern of New York City bikes with a low-dimensional approach utilizing three-level data clustering. We use historical demand data along with temperature and precipitation to first aggregate and then decompose data to obtain meaningful clusters. The core of this approach lies in the proposed clustering technique, which reduces the dimension of the problem and, differently from other machine learning techniques, requires limited assumptions on the model or its parameters. The proposed method allows, for the given temperature and precipitation method, to obtain expected vector of movement (mean number and direction of trips) for each zone. In this paper, we synthesize more than 17 million trips into daily and zonal vectors of movement, which combined with weather data allow forecasting of the trip demand. The method allows us to predict the demand with over 75% accuracy, as shown in series of experiments in which various settings and parameterizations are validated against 25% holdout data.